Hired 50, Lost 64: Why Private Banking’s Hiring Headlines Measure the Wrong Thing

The most misleading line in a private bank’s results is the one that says how many relationship managers it hired.

Julius Baer’s first half of 2026 makes the point better than any theory. Julius Baer hired 50 relationship managers during the first half, but 64 left the bank. As a result, the total number declined by 14 to 1,247 full-time equivalents. Over the same six months the bank posted net profit of 673 million Swiss francs, the highest ever recorded for a six-month period. Nobody in Zurich is calling that a crisis, and it isn’t one. But it captures something every hiring bank in Switzerland knows and few will put on a slide. A hire is easy to announce. Keeping one is the hard part. Some of those 64 exits will have been deliberate. Every bank with a performance culture manages out bankers who miss plan, and Baer has been open about it: an earlier update described a net decrease due to Brazil sale and low-performer management. But deliberate or not, every departure in year one or two is a business case that never paid back.

Nor is this only a Julius Baer story. EFG runs one of the most consistent hiring programmes in the market. It reported 39 Client Relationship Officers hired in 1H26, with an additional 33 signed or having received offers at end-June 2026. Yet by end-April 2026, EFG’s total number of CROs worldwide was 761, compared to 763 CROs at end-2025, and by end-June 2026 it had increased to 771. So EFG’s headcount rose by 8 in a half in which it hired 39. By my arithmetic, that implies around 30 bankers left over the same period, at a bank having an excellent year, with net new assets of SFr5.7 billion, an annualised growth rate of 6.2 per cent, beating its target range of 4 to 6 per cent. Churn under the hiring headline happens across the industry, including at the banks doing it well.

Why the net number is the one that pays

The growth model depends on it. Baer disclosed that in its first four months, most net new money contributions came from RMs on business case (70%), with seasoned RMs contributing 30%. At EFG, new CROs who joined in the last three years contributed 46% of NNA in the first half of 2026. The two banks define “new” differently, so the figures shouldn’t be compared directly.

Neither figure is surprising on its own. A seasoned banker’s book is already inside the bank, so fresh money will naturally come from fresh hires. What the figures show is how much the model depends on the hiring machine. If a hire leaves before the book arrives, the bank has paid for the courtship and kept none of the assets.

Baer’s case adds a further twist. The bank attracted 5.7 billion francs in net new money during the first half, an annualized growth rate of just 2.2 percent, well below its medium-term target of 4 to 5 percent. The ongoing implementation of its revised risk and compliance framework continues to affect net new money, and Julius Baer expects the impact to persist into 2027.

Where business cases break

A business case gets written during the courtship and judged in year two. When it’s written, everyone is optimistic. The hiring manager wants the book, the banker wants the package, and the risk appetite on the table is whatever applies that month. If the bank then tightens its onboarding standards, which is exactly what a responsible bank should do after a credit scare, the banker who joined under the old appetite feels it first. Clients who looked bookable at interview turn out to need another six months of source-of-wealth work, or never make it through. The banker falls behind plan through no fault of their own, the line manager gets pressure from above, and the conversation that follows is rarely a good one.

No single bank has a monopoly on this. It happens wherever a bank tightens its risk appetite in the middle of a hiring push. The two programmes pull in opposite directions, and the bankers caught between them are the ones who leave.

Three questions before you sign

If you’re weighing an offer, start by asking what the onboarding committee will actually accept for your client segment. Ask for it as specifically as compliance allows, ideally in writing. A business case built on clients the bank cannot book is a liability with your name on it.

Then ask what happens to your targets if a policy or regulatory change blocks part of your book after you join. Some banks will adjust the plan and some won’t. You want to know which kind you’re joining before you resign, not after.

Finally, ask who sponsored your hire and whether they’ll still be in the seat in eighteen months. Many of the most painful year-two stories I hear start with a new manager who inherited a business case they never believed in.

None of these questions is aggressive, and a serious hiring bank will have answers. If the answers are vague, that tells you something too.

What banks should be measuring

For hiring banks, the scoreboard needs to change. The number that matters is net RM change. Behind it are two others: how much of each hiring cohort is still in place at 24 months, and how much of the projected book actually arrived. A bank that hires 80 and keeps 70 has spent its recruitment budget well. A bank that hires 150 and keeps 90 gets a bigger headline but pays far more for each banker who actually stayed and brought a book.

Across more than 200 placements, our own 12-month retention sits at 90%. Most of that is settled before the offer, in the awkward conversations about fit, platform and booking reality that both sides are tempted to skip at the third dinner.

Two updates, two days

Julius Baer publishes its Interim Management Statement for the first ten months of 2026 on 23 November. EFG follows with its 10 months business update on 24 November 2026. When they land, look past the hiring figures and read the net number.

If you’re weighing a move and want an honest read on how much of your book is likely to follow you, the EP Portability Score is a good place to start. If this kind of analysis is useful to you, subscribe to Private Wealth Pulse.